Wuliangye (000858) quarterly report review 2019: channel sales speed up to promote rapid growth in 19Q1 performance

Wuliangye (000858) quarterly report review 2019: channel sales speed up to promote rapid growth in 19Q1 performance

I. Overview of the event The company released the first quarter report of 2019 on the 28th. The report pointed out that the company’s operating income / net profit attributable to the mother were 175.

9 ppm / 64.

750,000 yuan, +26 a year.

57% / + 30.

26%; basic EPS1.

67 yuan.

  Second, analyze and judge the income growth rate of the top three, Wuliangye is in the best state since the current recovery of the industry cycle in 19Q1 Wuliangye achieved operating income of 175.

9 trillion, +26 a year.

57%, revenue growth accelerated in the top three liquor.

The rapid growth of revenue comes from the acceleration of the sales of Wuliangye’s major brands during the Spring Festival.

Thanks to the residual supply of Maotai, Wuliangye achieved a good momentum of rising volume and price in 19Q1, channel inventory was effectively removed, and channel spreads have been significantly restored. We believe that the current Wuliangye fundamentals have been in the recovery of the liquor cycleBest state.

  The rapid growth of the main brand products pushed up the gross profit margin, and the actual net profit margin of the sales approached 40%. In 19Q1, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 75.

78%, ten years +2.

59ppt, the highest level in a single quarter since the second half of 2014.

Judging from 19Q1 Wuliangye continued the trend since 18 years. The growth rate of high-priced wines, especially Wuliangye’s main brand products, was significantly higher than that of low-priced wines.

We estimate that the annual shipment volume of Wuliangye’s main brand products for the Spring Festival this year will be + 20% or more, which is expected to be significantly higher than low-priced products.

  Expenses during the first quarter of 19 9.

78%, ten years +0.

18ppt, generally stable.

Therefore, the rapid increase of gross profit margin has promoted the improvement of net profit margin, reaching 38.

72%, ten years +1.


Because the company had a donation of US $ 100 million in the reporting year included in non-operating expenses, the company’s 19Q1 net profit margin would exceed 40%.

  Insist on brand slimming, focus on “1 + 3”, “4 + 4” product system At the end of 2018, the company proposed a brand slimming plan, began cleaning up the total distribution products that are harmful to the Wuliangye brand, and gradually resolved the industry of total distribution products and self-operated large single products.With regard to competition, we will focus our resources on building a “1 + 3” and “4 + 4” core product system.

In April, Wuliangye Group officially released the “Wulianye Group Brand Development and Clearance Management Standards”, “Wuliangye Group Series Wine Brands and Product Development and Clearance Management Standards” and other relevant documents, comprehensively sorted out the existing brand and product structure, and classified the pace.Promote rectification and clearance.

Although in the short term, the 佛山桑拿网 liquidation of some large-scale development products will be a drag on the income side in the short term, but the company’s consolidation and implementation of the brand slimming plan is conducive to effectively avoiding the decline in Wuliangye’s brand value and is very beneficial to the long-term development of the company.

  The seventh generation of the Puwu Spring Festival is ideal, and the price of the eighth generation Puwu is expected to be optimistic. In June this year, the eighth generation Wuliangye will be fully listed. It is expected that the ex-factory price of the eighth generation Wuwu will be set at 889 yuan.

Considering that the seven generations of Pu five inventory is ideally de-allocated during the Spring Festival, according to the current distribution ratio (56% seven generations, 9% commemorative edition, 杭州桑拿论坛 35% eight generations), the cost savings of dealers are around 830 yuan, and the current channel price has risen to 840At -850 yuan, we judge that the approval price in the second half of the year is expected to continue to approach 860-880 yuan.

We believe that 1618 and low-grade Wuliangye are expected to become the core driving force for the growth of high-end sales in the second half of the year, and the 8th generation of the plan is only 5250 tons during the year. Therefore, its core task is to continue to maintain prices to repair dealer profit margins.

As the recent approval price continues to improve and channel confidence continues to pick up, we think that the possibility of achieving nominal nominal price for the eight generations of Puwu around the end of 19 may gradually increase.

  Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to achieve operating income of 500/590/691 billion in 19-21 years, + 25% / + 18% / + 17%; net profit attributable to mothers of 170/202/238 billion, for the whole year+27% / + 19% / + 18%, corresponding to an EPS of 4.



13 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 23/20/17 times.

At present, the overall evaluation of the liquor industry is 31 times. The company estimates that it is significantly lower than the overall level of other industries and maintains a “recommended” rating.

  Fourth, risk warning: economic growth drags down demand, approval prices are lower than expected, food safety issues, etc.

GoerTek (002241): Turning point in performance has emerged new intelligent hardware to promote a new round of growth

GoerTek (002241): Turning point in performance has emerged new intelligent hardware to promote a new round of growth

The company released the 2019 quarterly report.

Core point of view The performance inflection point has arrived, and continuous growth is expected: the company’s 19Q1 revenue was 5.7 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 41%, net profit attributable 深圳桑拿网to its mother was 200 million US dollars, an increase of 11%, and non-attribution net profit was deducted1.

6 ‰, an increase of 64% in ten years, the growth rate of non-performing performance exceeded expectations.

At the same time, the company foresees a 5-25% growth rate in the first half of the year. The smart headset and wearable business will drive the company’s revenue scale and performance to continue to improve quarter by quarter. The inflection point of performance has now arrived, the revenue scale will be ahead, and future profits will be flexible.

TWS air outlet has arrived: Apple AirPods smart headphones lead the TWS wireless smart Bluetooth headset boom, and promote the development of new intelligent hardware worldwide.

Under this trend, sound transmission technology and core components will also usher in upgrading needs. Goertech is leading the layout of the TWS headset design and assembly and core acoustic components. It has an absolute leading position in the market, and provides customers with overall technical solutions.The big technology giants work closely together, and their share and production capacity in big customers continue to increase rapidly. In the future, the further expansion of customers and the increase in sales of terminal products are expected to become new points of performance growth.

Leading stability of acoustic devices and MEMS: Acoustic devices such as stereo, waterproof, intelligent and other innovation trends are obvious, the prediction of each brand is gradually upgraded, the company’s advanced acoustic device design and production capabilities, through optimized management, lean production, focus on large customers, and consolidateCore competitiveness, leading share among large customers; At the same time, the company continues to strengthen its layout in the microelectronics field, replacing MEMS microphones and MEMS sensors with leading positions in the market, and developing and packaging and testing 5G base station chips, smart sensors, SIP advanced packaging processes, etc.We will strengthen investment in this area and strive to maintain continuous growth in the future.

VR / AR business is expected to benefit in the long run: GoerTek has mature optical component (VR), optical machine system (AR) and intelligent hardware design and manufacturing capabilities, and has deep cooperation with global technology manufacturers to lay out the VR / AR industry chain. It is Sony, Oculus Exclusive OEMs of VR products are expected to benefit from the full support of the country and the promotion of 5G technology for a long time. The release of new products by leading brands is also expected to further lead the industry development trend.

Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions We predict that the company’s EPS in 19-21 will be 0.

36, 0.

50 and 0.

61 yuan (the original forecast for 19 and 2深圳丝袜会所 0 EPS is 0.

55 and 0.

70 yuan, based on the classification of the 18-year report and the adjustment of the future forecast of the headset layout). According to a comparable company, the company was given 34 times PE conversion in 19 years, and the corresponding target price was 12.

24 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Risks indicate that sales of TWS headsets have fallen short of expectations; AR / VR industry development has fallen short of expectations.

Shen Wanhongyuan: The performance of major global assets since the fourth quarter looks like QE stage

Shen Wanhongyuan: The performance of major global assets since the fourth quarter looks like QE stage

[Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy Global Asset Allocation]Since the fourth quarter, the performance of large-scale global assets looks like the QE stage-Weekly Focus on Global Asset Allocation (2019112
9-20191206)The performance of major global assets looks like QE.

As of November 2019, the four major changes in the US dollar denominated China, the United States, Japan, and Europe have shifted the scale of their balance sheets for the first time.

Although the probability of the Fed’s interest rate cut in December is almost zero from a price perspective, global liquidity in the fourth quarter is actually in a marginal loose state from a volume perspective.

Although the Fed denied the implementation of QE in the early stage of restarting the purchase of short-term debt, the expansion effect brought by the restart of short-term debt purchase has actually exerted the effect of marginal liquidity.

From the perspective of asset price performance, after the Fed restarted debt purchase in September, US stocks, commodities increased, US debt, and the US dollar exchange rate.

This is very similar to the asset price performance during QE1 and QE2.

  Week 2: 2: The Fed’s manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48.

1. It is still far from the lowest PMI average level of previous recession rate cuts.

The US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell from 48 in November.

3 amazing 48.

1, lower than market expectations; 苏州桑拿网 non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 26 in November.

60,000, expected 18.

30,000, significantly higher than expected.

Preventive rate cut period: PMI rebounded quickly after short-term falling below the wing line, with a median low of 46.

8; Recessionary interest rate cut period: PMI extension time stays below the line of prosperity and dryness, with a median low of 37.

  Weekly Focus 3: Japan launches economic stimulus package to hedge the impact of increased restructuring of consumption tax.

The Japanese government held an interim cabinet meeting on December 5 and determined that the total size will be 26 trillion yen (approximately 1).

7 trillion yuan, 239 billion US dollars) economic stimulus plan.

Prime Minister Abe hopes to solve the problem of expanding social security spending before leaving office, so it is imperative to raise the consumption tax to expand the permanent tax base, and the Abe government has launched a temporary fiscal expansion plan to alleviate the shock caused by the 10-month increase in replacement.
  Monday (2019.



6) OPEC + agreed to expand production by 75% in early 2020, pushing crude oil prices up, and the S & P GSCI index led the rise3.


WTI crude oil rose 7.

At 3%, Brent Oil rose 6.


At the same time the precious metals dropped by 0.

75% of which comex gold fell 0.


Stock market: Emerging market stocks and developed market stocks both closed up, with gains of 0.

86% and 0.

18%, both Chinese and US stock markets rose.

The bond market as a whole fell, the performance of sovereign debt was differentiated, and developed market sovereign debt fell.

09%, emerging market sovereign debt rose slightly.

05%, the global treasury bond yields generally rise, the average value of 10-year US Treasury bonds and 10-year Chinese Treasury bonds rose to 1.
84% and 3.

In terms of exchange rate, the US PMI data was lower than the market expected the US dollar to fall, but the non-agricultural employment data performed well and pushed the US dollar up again. This week, the US dollar closed slightly down by 0.


Many currencies have strengthened relative to the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate has depreciated relative to the US dollar.

In terms of capital flow, this week’s funds flowed into emerging market equity funds for 6 consecutive weeks.

Next week, China and the United States will release inflation data, China’s social finance, M2 and other monetary data.

China Holdings (603903): Steady growth, prudent investment, cash flow hit new high since listing

China Holdings (603903): Steady growth, prudent investment, cash flow hit new high since listing

1H19 performance was slightly lower than expected, maintaining “overweight” rating. According to the company’s announcement, 1H19 company achieved operating income / net profit attributable to mothers / net profit attributable to non-mothers4.



5 ‰, a year of -18% /-22% /-19%, the performance was slightly lower than expected.

In terms of quarters, 2Q’s revenue is at least -35%, which is the first reorganization since listing; during the period, the expense period + 65%, the gross profit margin gradually + 17pct, and operating cash flow breakthroughs + 669%, which are mainly due to the company’s “steady growth, prudentThe concept of “investment, healthy operation, and innovative development” is gradually being implemented, and we are proactively abandoning projects with high risks and low returns.

We have lowered our previous profit forecast and expect the net profit attributable to mothers to be 1 in 2019-21.



4 billion (previous value was 1.



02), the corresponding EPS is 0.



96 yuan, 19 years to the company.


5x target P / E, corresponding to a target price of 13.


38 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.

The abandonment of high-risk and low-yield projects, the acceleration of the regional layout and the increase in three fees, and the 2Q19 results gradually expected that 2Q19 companies will achieve operating income / net profit attributable to mothers / net profit attributable to non-mothers2.



4 ‰, -35 per year.

4% /-27.

0% /-23.

7%, which is the first time that revenue has decreased since listing; at the same time, the growth rate of expenses during the period increased by 6 from the previous quarter.

0 points to 65.

2%, causing the performance to fall short of expectations, preliminary: 1) the company to improve access to project quality, environmental infrastructure construction services business income replacement; 2) the period of increase in costs significantly: 2Q19 sales expenses / financial costs / management costs (including research and development costs) +38 per year.

3% / + 72.

0% / + 68.

5%, mainly due to the company’s expansion of business scale, increase loans, increase investment in research and development, the newly established Anhui, Shaanxi Branch brings management costs.

In the second quarter of 19, gross profit margin increased significantly by 17pct, and cash flow from operating activities / investment activities improved significantly. The company’s gross profit margin was 36 in 2Q19.

6%, +17 per year.

At 1 point, the company selectively abandons some high-risk projects, while losing revenue, it also brings a significant increase in gross profit margin, which is a good foundation for the company’s long-term development potential.

At the same time, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities in the second quarter was 1.

0 million yuan (ten years +669.

4%), the net cash flow from investing activities is 1.

30,000 yuan (-34 for the whole year.0%), thanks to the company’s strict control over the quality of newly approved projects, careful investment, and significant improvements in the average cash flow generated from operating and investment activities.

The performance of Nanzi Environmental Protection is dazzling, and the future development potential is expected. The company acquired Nanzi Environmental Protection (60% of the shares) in April 18, and successfully entered the business of high profitability toxic and refractory industrial wastewater treatment.

In 1H19, the newly-added contract value of Nanzhuang Environmental Protection was more than 80 million yuan, and net profit was 2859.

70,000 yuan, accounting for 37% of the net profit attributable to the mother according to the amount of shares held.

8%, we are optimistic about its technological advantages and high-quality channels in the field of sewage treatment, and its future development potential is expected.

Downgrade profit forecast and maintain “overweight” rating. Considering that the company is in the early stage of strategic transformation of “stable operation and healthy 深圳桑拿网 development”, overlapping 1H19 results are slightly lower than expected. We lowered the previous profit forecast and expect the company to return to its parent’s net profit in 2019-21.They are 1.



4 billion (previous value was 1.



02), the corresponding EPS is 0.



96 yuan.

With reference to a comparable company’s median P / E of 16x in 2019, we are optimistic about the long-term operating benefits brought by the strategic transformation to the company, giving an appropriate premium and giving the company 19 years 19


5x target P / E, corresponding to a target price of 13.


38 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.

Risk Warning: The new starting point is less than expected, and the water environment treatment is less than expected.

Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160): Q2 continues to expand polymer electronics chemicals with volume

Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160): Q2 continues to expand polymer electronics chemicals with volume

The company announced its semi-annual report for 2019.

2019H1 company realized operating income of 75.

80 billion (-6.

50%), net profit attributable to mother 7.

0.5 billion (-33.

75%), net of non-attributed net profit 5.

32 billion (-44.


Among them, Q2 deducts non-attributed net profit for a single quarter3.

1.3 billion (previously -41%, + 43% MoM).

In 19Q2, the prices of the company’s main products declined, but sales continued to increase.

Q2 demand is relatively weak, and the prices of all major products of the company have declined, including: R22 15284 yuan / ton (excluding tax, the same below) (-4% MoM), R134a 25362 yuan / ton (-7 MoM), R125 21083 yuan / ton (-10% MoM), R32 15054 yuan / ton (-9% MoM), PTFE 44073 yuan / ton (-9% MoM), caustic soda at 785 yuan / ton (-3 MoM).

However, the company supplemented the price with quantity, kept the operating rate and production and sales at a low point. 19Q2 fluorinated raw materials, refrigerants, fluoropolymers, PVDC, CPL, and basic chemical sales increased by 4 from the previous month.

00%, 5.

90%, 8.

淡水桑拿网69%, 38.

06%, 9.

29%, 8.

twenty two%.

Optimistic about the price of R22 in the second half of the year and HFC market after 2020.

In 2020, R22 will be reduced to at least 35%, and prices are expected to be reflected in the second half of 2019 in advance; 2020-2022 is a year of HFC reduction. We have calculated that the capacity to complete the expansion this year will be huge.Feiyuan, if the remaining production capacity is expanded after 2020, it will be at a disadvantage in the future alternative competition.

With the introduction of the global leading grade of refrigerants, the company has gradually strategically laid out fluoropolymers and electronic chemicals.

In terms of fluoropolymers, PTFE capacity continues to expand, 1.

2 The first phase of PTFE technical transformation (supplemented 1,450 tons) was 四川耍耍网 completed and accepted in July, 1.

27 Expansion of PTFE is expected to begin production by the end of the year.

The company’s PTFE continues the successful experience of refrigerants, mainly based on internal technological transformation and tapping potential expansion, low expansion costs, and stable production release.

In terms of electronic chemicals, China Giant Technology, a joint venture established by the company and a large fund, is the only company in China that has the industrialization capabilities of electronic-grade chlorine, hydrogen chloride, and hydrogen fluoride gas. At the same time, the company plans to invest 1 billion in Zhejiang Fuzhe IC industryDevelopment Co., Ltd. (registered capital 15 billion).

We adjusted the net profit attributable to mother to 2019/20/21 to 13.



34 billion (originally 15.



35 billion), EPS 0.



67 yuan, corresponding to the current price of PE 14.


7x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: HFC Capacity Expansion Exceeds Expectations, Air Conditioning Demand Decreases

Yangnong Chemical (600486) 2019 Semi-annual Report Comment: Steady Performance, Youjia Phase III Efforts to Open Growth Space

Yangnong Chemical (600486) 2019 Semi-annual Report Comment: Steady Performance, Youjia Phase III Efforts to Open Growth Space

[Investment Highlights]The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved operating income of 28 in the first half of the year.

9.4 billion, at least -6.

49%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

2.7 billion, ten years +11.

46%; deducted non-attributed net profit 5.

8.4 billion, previously +4.

71%; budget benefit is 2.

02 yuan.

Q2 achieved revenue of 13 in a single quarter.

2.4 billion, before -10.

82%, compared with -15.

66%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

00 billion, previously +3.

88%, month-on-month.


The consolidated gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 34.

79%, ten years +3.

60pct, the increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to the increase in the percentage of high gross profit insecticide revenue.

Net interest rate 21.

74%, ten years +2.

68 points.

The increase in net profit mainly comes from two aspects. First, after acquiring 5% minority shares in Youshi and Youjia, the comprehensive income of minority shareholders decreased; second, the gain from changes in fair value increased by 6,238.

400,000 to 30.66 million yuan.

The three fee ratio (including R & D expenses) is 9.

54%, ten years +1.

55 points, of which the increase in employee compensation increased the management expense ratio by 35.

59% to 1.

2.7 billion; increased financial interest income and reduced foreign exchange earnings decreased by 1173.


Net cash flow from operating activities is -51 per year.

81%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of business income during the accounting period, and the receivables turnover rate slightly decreased.

Both the volume and price of permethrin rose, contributing to growth in performance.

In the first half of the year, pesticide sales were 7,853.

64 tons, +8 for ten years.

55%, average price 23.

08 thousand yuan / ton, previously +11.

88%, income 18.

1.2 billion, previously +21.43%.

Q2 single season sales of 3741.

19 tons, +1 a year.

39%, average price 21.

230,000 yuan / ton, previously +5.

45%, volume and price are maintained at a single quarter high level, a slight decrease from the previous month, the overall agricultural pyrethroid growth rate is faster than the santhrin.

With regard to agricultural pyrethroids, affected by the Jiangsu security accident in the first half of the year, some enterprises stopped production and reduced production, which caused tight supply of some products and prices remained high.

According to Zhuochuang Information, the average price of kefiracetate was 35 in the first half of the year.

190,000 yuan / ton, +40 for ten years.

14%, the average price of bifenthrin is 38.

00 million / ton, +13 per year.

twenty three%.

The 天津夜网 company seized the favorable opportunity of short-term internal supply of major varieties and both volume and price to achieve rapid growth.

As for the santhrin, in the first half of the year, the downstream mosquito-repellent incense plant started to suffer from insufficient demand due to weather. The company strengthened its sales management, and the sanitin revenue continued to decrease.

37% steady growth.

At present, the prices of major pyrethroids are still high. We believe that under the pressure of safety and environmental protection, pyrethrin products can help maintain a large profit range.

Dicamba is still weak, dragging down export earnings.

Sales of herbicides in the first half of the year were 20,835.

79 tons per year -34.

33%, average price 3.

08 thousand yuan / ton, -23 per year.

19%, income 6.

4.1 billion, ten years -49.


Q2 single season sales of 10252.

12 tons, -3.

13%, average price 3.

190,000 yuan / ton, +7 from the previous month.


Affected by the gradual decline of the global agrochemical market, the inventory of chemical giants is high; the expansion of the Brazilian market application exceeds expectations; and the deterioration of the trading environment, the demand for dicamba is weak, and the sales volume has fallen sharply in the short term, and the price pressure has increased.

According to Zhuochuang Information, the average price of dicamba in the first half of the year was 9.

510,000 yuan / ton, ten years -6.


We believe that the transformation of the commercialization of the Brazilian market is gradually promoted, and the demand for dicamba is gradually improving.

The construction of the third-phase project of Youjia started, integrating Sinochem’s international pesticide assets, with long-term growth.

Youjia Phase III Project (Investment 20.

22 trillion, 11475 tons of insecticides such as pyrethrin, 1,000 tons of bensulfuron and other herbicides, and 3000 tons of fungicides such as propiconazole have begun construction. The current project is in progress.

21%, we expect to gradually release capacity in the first quarter of 2020.

After integrating the acquisition of Sinochem International’s core pesticide assets, Sinochem Crops, the agricultural research company has further improved its formulation business layout and its research and development capabilities have been further enhanced.

In addition, the preparation project, Youjia Phase IV and Youjia Phase V are all under planning and construction, and the company’s long-term growth remains the same. [Investment recommendation]Considering the acquisition of 5% minority shares in Ushi and Youjia, and without considering the impact of the acquisition of Sinochem International’s pesticide assets, we slightly adjusted the net profit attributable to mothers for 19-21 years.

It is estimated that the company’s operating income for the years 19, 20 and 21 will be 56.

34, 67.

54, 81.

3.5 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 10.

67, 12.

89, 14.

21 trillion, EPS is 3 respectively.


16, 4.

59 yuan, corresponding to 15, 13, 12 times the PE, maintaining the “overweight” level.

[Risk reminder]The project’s production progress is less than expected; the price of pyrethroid and dicamba is rising; the progress of GM-resistant crops is slow; the price of raw materials changes.

Zhongju Hi-tech (600872) Third Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Maintains Stable Growth

Zhongju Hi-tech (600872) Third Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Maintains Stable Growth

During the incident, Juju High-tech released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company’s 9M19 achieved 35 revenue.

31 ppm, +11 a year.

57%, net profit attributable to mother 5.

46 trillion, ten years +12.

32%, of which 19Q3 revenue was 11.

38 trillion, ten years +14.

93%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

80 ppm, +22 for ten years.


The initial gain is zero.

68 yuan.

Investment points The main business income grew steadily, and regional expansion steadily advanced.

The company’s 9M19 achieved revenue of 35.

31 ppm, +11 a year.

57% (Q1: +6.

72%; second quarter: +13.

78%; Q3: +14.


From the main business of condiments, 9M19 delicious fresh realized operating income of 33.

57 trillion, ten years +14.

97% (Q1: +15.

32%; second quarter: +15.

26%; Q3: +14.

30%), and have achieved steady growth since this year.

By category, 9M19 soy sauce / chicken powder / edible oil / others plus +9 respectively.

85% / + 19.

20% / + 33.

27% / + 28.

97%; of which, 19Q3 soy sauce / fine chicken flour / other twice +8 respectively.

56% / + 18.

94% / 33.

19%, the growth rate of soy sauce and chicken powder was -1 respectively.

88% /-0.

38%, the company’s main category performance is generally stable, the growth rate of small categories increased.

In terms of different channels, 9M19 distribution / direct sales revenue were +15 respectively.

99% /-8.

45%, accounting for 97.

96% / 2.04%, the increase in the proportion of distribution channels is mainly due to the expansion of the dealer team. The company’s 9M19 dealers have a net increase of 145, of which the east / south / midwest / north region has a net increase of 21/10/53/61,The number of distributors in the Midwest / Northern region has increased significantly, and the company has further deployed in weaker markets. At the same time, it has promoted the transfer of channels in the more advantageous Eastern / Southern markets to increase regional penetration.

By region, 9M19 Eastern / Southern / Midwestern / Northern regions received several +11 incomes.

94% / + 12.

26% / + 25.

95% / + 18.

69%, accounting for 24.

35% / 42.

91% / 18.

12% / 14.

63%, the distribution of the central and western regions and the northern region has achieved remarkable results, and the revenue has maintained a high increase. From the follow-up point of view, the company will accelerate the development of blank prefecture-level cities and tertiary market districts and counties, and the national layout will continue to move forward.

In addition to the condiment business, 9M19 achieved 0 in revenue.

780,000 yuan, +71 for ten years.

37%; 9M19 in the torch Seiko achieved zero income.

570,000 yuan, at least -2.


Gross profit margin and expense ratio were generally stable, and profitability remained stable.

The gross profit of the main business is slightly under pressure: the company’s gross profit margin for 9M19 is 39.

20% (first season: 39.

38% in the second quarter: 40.

29%; Q3: 37.

89%), the previous +0.

13pct; gross margin of delicious fresh products-0.

17pct to 39.

01%, mainly due to a slight increase in the prices of food additives (MSG and I + G) in raw materials. The company adopted price reduction promotions to quickly expand the market and the proportion of soy sauce outside gross margins decreased. The proportion of products rose, which had a certain impact on gross margins.

The expense ratio showed an upward trend: the overall expense ratio of the company in 19Q3 was 18.

62%, ten years +0.

85pct, of which sales / management / finance / R & D expense ratios are 8 respectively.

72% / 5.

89% / 3.

09% / 0.

92%, +0 each year.

78pct / + 0.

45pct / -0.

40pct / + 0.

02pct, the expense ratio rose slightly, it is said that the company expanded the channel investment and management efforts under the conditions of developing weak markets and channel sinking.

Company 9M19 achieved net profit attributable to mother 5.

46 trillion, +12 ten years ago.

32% (Q1: +11.

53% in the second quarter: +4.

43%; third quarter: +22.32%), among which the improvement in 19Q3 from the previous quarter was caused by the decrease in the base of the company ‘s 18Q3 delicious fresh net profit.

The delicious fresh company achieved net profit attributable to mother 5.

43 trillion, +19 a year.

08% (first quarter: +33.

81%, second quarter: +7.

98%; Q3: +17.

53%), 19Q3 net profit growth rate +9.

55pct, mainly due to the low base of 18Q3 (18Q3 delicious fresh return mother net profit + 1% per year).

The company’s 9M19 net profit is 17.

01%, Decade -0.

02pct, the net profit margin of delicious fresh company is 16.

18%, ten years +0.

62pct, overall profitability is stable.

In addition, the investment income of this period was 12.18 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 8.61 million yuan) and an increase of 8.61 million yuan in government subsidies received during the period also contributed to net profit.

19Q3 company sales of goods and services in cash for two years +11.

58%, operating cash flow ten years +4.

18%, cash flow is generally good.

The category expansion trend is perfect, and the future space is considerable.

The company’s Yangxi soy sauce production capacity is still in the process of gradual release. Until the end of 2018, the total production capacity will reach 54 tons.

In addition, the company will invest 16.

2.5 billion US dollars to implement the investment plan of Yangxi delicious fresh food production project, will reach the production capacity will be added after the completion of 65 65 production 杭州夜网论坛 capacity (of which 30 inches will be through cooking oil, 20 input fuel, 10 injection cooking wine, 5 budget vinegar), The project construction period is 5 years, and the annual sales income will be 48.

4.5 billion, with a total annual profit of 4.

600 million, net profit 3.

400 million yuan.

The company’s existing small-scale condiment revenues are relatively small, but the market has good feedback. At the same time, the company judges that the small-scale condiment market has considerable space in the future.

The new plant plans the production capacity ahead of time, and the products tend to diversify. (Taking edible oil as an example, the company currently only produces peanut oil, and will expand its production to olive oil and corn oil in the future).

The company’s brand power is gradually improved, and it will help the new category market performance in the future.

Channels will continue to be cultivated, and catering will continue to be cultivated.

With the gradual release of production capacity, the company will also develop supporting the sinking of channels.

In addition, the company judges the future upswing channel of catering consumption, and will focus on developing the catering channel, mainly through: 1) the establishment of top chef clubs to participate in targeted promotion by participating in activities; 2) help on dealer resources, and professional dealerDivision of labor, targeted expansion of catering channels.

Dealers are specialized in division of labor, production capacity is gradually released, overlapping channels are deepened, and performance prospects are improving.

Earnings forecast and investment recommendations The company will have a focus on regional and catering channel expansion in the future, expand the gross margin upside from increased production efficiency, and have considerable potential for revenue performance.

We adjusted our profit forecast based on the company’s three quarterly report and expect the company’s 2019 revenue to be 47.

100 million (+13.

1%), EPS is 0.

86 yuan (+13.

2%), corresponding to the closing price on October 30, 2019, the PE for 2019 is 51x.

We maintain the rating of “Prudent Overweight” and advise investors to pay more attention.

Risks suggest rising raw material costs, increased competition in the industry, food safety issues, regional expansion is less than expected

Origin (002701) 2019 first quarter report comment: 19Q1 operating inflection point shows a significant improvement in operating cash flow

Origin (002701) 2019 first quarter report comment: 19Q1 operating inflection point shows a 天津夜网 significant improvement in operating cash flow

Investment highlights: The company announced its 2018 and 19Q1 results. The 18-year results were lower than expected, and the 19Q1 slightly exceeded expectations: the company achieved revenue of 81 in 2018.

75 ppm, an increase of 10 years.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

25 ‰, 68 years ago.

0%; net profit after deducting non-attribution is 1.

24 ppm, a ten-year average of 79.

3%; net operating cash flows increase every year.


Single 18Q4 realized income 19.

250,000 yuan, 6 compared to the same period last year.

4%; net profit attributable to mother -4.

7.7 billion.

1Q1 realized income 20.

51 ppm, a 10-year increase2.

9%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

37 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

0%; deducting non-attributed net profit increased for ten years.


Due to prudent accounting treatment, changes in 2018 results will not affect the subsequent operation and performance, and maintain profit forecasts.

As the company holds shares in COFCO Packaging 22.

For 93% of the shares, the auditor of COFCO Packaging issued a qualified opinion on the 2018 financial report. Out of careful consideration, the company provided for impairment of COFCO’s long-term equity investment.

10,000 yuan, if this part is added back, the net profit attributable to the mother for 18 years should be 7.

26 yuan, an annual increase of 3.


The company’s 18Q3-Q4 cash flow situation improved significantly from the previous quarter, exceeding the growth of 49% and 193%, driving the 18 growth growth from negative to positive.

The profit side started to accelerate in 19Q1, and operating cash flow improved significantly.

The elasticity of the decline in raw material prices in Q1 still cannot be fully reflected; looking forward to the first quarter of 2019, the average tinplate price fell by 10%, the domestic aluminum ingot price fell by 4%, the LME aluminum price fell by 13%, and the new production capacity was maximized, and the gross profit marginThere is room for improvement.

In 19Q1, net profit returned to double-digit growth, the price of two-piece cans increased, and the overlapping three fees were effectively controlled. Sales, management (excluding R & D), and financial expense ratios fell by 0.

33 pieces, 0 pieces

47 points and 1.

54pct, it is expected that future profits will continue to grow faster than revenue growth.

1Q1 net operating cash flow increased by 619 per year.

4%, a decrease of 32 in the ten years receivable.

6%, inventory fell by 4.

4%, operating cash flow continued to maintain a good trend.

Two-piece cans: The industry has entered the upward channel, the new production capacity has gradually climbed, and the subsequent increase in profit elasticity has been reflected.

Revenue from the two-piece can business in 2018 was 15.

960,000 yuan, an increase of 20.
5%, we estimate that about 15 pct of this comes from the new capacity of Xianning shaped tanks in Hubei, and the remaining 5 pct comes from the price increase of standard two-piece cans.
With the supply-side reforms in 2016-2017 and the increase in raw material growth, the profitability of the two-piece tank industry has bottomed out, and the leading group has accelerated integration and concentration.

From the following three points, we believe that the price of two-piece cans will return to the rising channel in the future: 1) Following the acquisition of Bol by Origen, the joint COFCO market share is as high as 38%, the bargaining power is enhanced, and the interests are consistent, and the price is reasonable.Level; 2) no threat of new entrants, high industry barriers, and the rhythm of capacity distribution is in the hands of the leader; 3) profitability of downstream beer customers is in the rising channel, switching to two-piece cans to improve profitability, and tolerance for price increasesHigher.

It is expected that the two-piece can industry will usher in a longer-term boom in the future!

At present, the price increase in 2019 has landed (expected 0.


8 cents / can), it is expected that after the completion of the Boer acquisition, the price increase in 2020 will increase.

Three-piece cans: The production and sales of large customers are stable, and sales are back to peak in 2018.

Three-piece beverage cans achieved revenue of 52.

710,000 yuan, 10 compared to the same period last year.


After large-scale customers experienced short-term event shocks in 17Q1, the growth rate of 18 was as high as double digits. At present, the production and operation stability policy requires continued attention to the subsequent progress of the event.

The company keeps cultivating and in-depth cooperation with new customers. In the future, the risks of major customers will increase and new customers will contribute more.

Three-piece food cans achieve 4.

4.2 billion, 34 year-on-year.

6%, high growth mainly benefited from in-depth cooperation with customers such as high-quality milk powder cans (including Feihe Dairy, etc.), adopting a factory-in-plant model, continuously improving supporting service capabilities, and continuing to deepen cooperation with high-quality customers.

The advantages of large customers are obvious, and the customer base structure continues to be enriched.

After the acquisition of Boer, the company will become the largest supplier of Budweiser, Coca-Cola, Tsingtao Beer, Yanjing, Red Bull, Dongpeng Special Drinks and other beverage customers.

With Hubei Xianning 2.

The 500 million cans and slimming cans factories were completed and put into production. The company added a number of customers to increase performance (including Budweiser, Amway, Pulse, Arlo, etc.).

The company began to cultivate from the early stage of customer growth, and the two sides developed together to enhance the cohesion of the cooperation and prepare for future heavy volume.

The company plans to launch an equity incentive plan to enhance team cohesion and demonstrate long-term confidence.

Prior to the implementation of this plan, the company’s executives held a total of 244 shares.

740 thousand shares, accounting for only 0 of the total share capital.

1%, the shares to be granted this time account for 0 of the total share capital.


The introduction of equity incentives will help unify the interests of affiliated companies, retain outstanding talents, and benefit the company’s long-term development.

The performance fluctuates briefly, and the logic is not changed for a long time!

The equity incentive plan demonstrates confidence in future development.

The acquisition of Boer AP further promotes the integration of the two-piece can industry, and the improvement of the leading bargaining power promotes the profit elasticity!

Major customers have stable operations. At the same time, they actively explore new customers and reduce the risk of a single customer. It is expected that new capacity will increase after the landing of new capacity.

Downstream customers are paying more and more attention to product quality and service. Origen continues to improve product added value from design, additional services and other aspects to create a comprehensive packaging solution provider!

With the gradual replacement of PET packaging by metal packaging in the future, the increase in canning rate, and the resumption of industry integration, the price increase strategy for two-piece cans has gradually changed, and the industry’s profit is expected to reverse.

We assume that Boer Asia Pacific will complete the consolidation in the middle to third quarter of 2019, and will not consider the profit elasticity brought about by further industry consolidation, and maintain the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 to be 0.

35 yuan and 0.

The 43 yuan profit forecast supplements the EPS of 0 in 2021.

The profit forecast of 55 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, is currently continuing (5.

15 yuan / share) corresponding to 15-20, 12-times and 9-times of PE in 2019-2021, maintaining buying.

China Life Insurance (601628): Product structure improved and value growth exceeded expectations

China Life Insurance (601628): Product structure improved and value growth exceeded expectations

This report reads: In the first half of 2019, the company’s interim attributable net profit increased year by year, slightly exceeding expectations.

Due to the good performance of investment performance and the improvement of the superimposed product structure, the new business value grew faster than expected, and the company’s embedded value increased11.

5%, expected performance is expected to continue a good development trend.

Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating and maintain target price of 34.

96 yuan (price after dividend ex-right), corresponding to 2019 P / EV of 1.

08 times: the company’s business structure improved significantly in the first half of the year, the value rate increased significantly, the agent channel expanded against the market, optimistic about its performance.

Raise China Life’s 2019-2021 return to mother’s net profit forecast to 488.

83 (427.

550,000 yuan, + 14%), 531 million yuan.

76 (492.

(870,000 yuan, + 8%) and 622 million yuan.

58 (601.

05 trillion, + 3%) trillion, corresponding to EPS forecast for 2019-2021 is 1.

73 yuan (1.

51 yuan, + 14%), 1.

淡水桑拿网88 yuan (1.

74 yuan, + 8%), 2.

20 yuan (2.

13 yuan, + 3%), maintain target price of 34.

96 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.

The proportion of health insurance premiums increased significantly, and the margin of new business value ratio improved significantly: the company’s first-year health insurance new orders increased by 36% in the first half of the year, driving the growth of health insurance business premiums by 29.

8%, significantly higher than expected.

The improvement of the product structure drove the company’s new business value rate to increase significantly. In the first half of the year, the company’s new business value rate of individual insurance channels was 36.

6%, an increase of 4 from the same period last year.

3%, the new business value ratio of banking and insurance channels 21.

5%, an increase of 7 per year.

9%, the strategy of 苏州夜网论坛 revitalizing China Life has achieved initial results.

At the same time, the company expanded its agent team against the market in the economic downturn, and the number of agents in insurance channels increased by 9 in the first half of the year.

3%, significantly increasing the agent channel moat, so we think the company’s debt end performance is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of the year.

The investment side performed well in the first half of the year, and the offset of investment jointly promoted the growth of growth in value exceeding expectations: the company’s total investment yield in the first half of the year (annualization) 5.

78%, compared with the same period last year 3.

The level of 78% was highly improved. Among the changes in embedded value in the first half of the year, the investment side contributed 262.

The difference in investment return of 610,000 yuan accounted for 29% of the increase in embedded value in the first half of the year.

In the same period, due to the improvement of the company’s product structure, the value of new business in the first half of the year increased by 22 year-on-year.

7%, which contributed 38% to the growth of embedded value in the first half of the year. The unexpected performance of the asset side and the liability side led to the growth of embedded value in the first half of the year.

5%, better than market expectations.

We think the company expects to continue the good trend of business development in the second half of the year.

Catalyst: The value rate continues to increase, and the product structure is further marginally improved. Risk reminders: Capital market fluctuations; the impact of falling interest rates on the investment side

Rimage (603730) company comment: The top 4 drivers for the leader are estimated to be only 13 times

Rimage (603730) company comment: The top 4 drivers for the leader are estimated to be only 13 times

Overview: Against the background of the “ground-up” in the automotive industry and the prospect of recovery, we believe that the company, as a global leader in segmented fields, has a fast and stable performance growth.

We expect that the company’s net profit CAGR will be 20% in the next 3 years, and the CAGR in 5 years is expected to exceed 15%.

The closing price on December 12 corresponds to an estimate of only 12 in 2020.

5 times.

We continue to be optimistic about the continued expansion of its new categories and maintain a “Buy” rating.

  Opinion: The Mexican factory has gradually improved, and the performance in 19Q3 has improved significantly.

The company achieved revenue of 13 in 19Q3.

2 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

8%; gross profit margin 32.

2%, a 3% increase over the previous month.

7 and 3.

5 units.

The three-fee rate has previously decreased by 0 from the previous month.

9 and 2.

7 up to 11.

2% (of which the financial expenses differ only 2 million from Q2).

We expect the company’s profits to increase significantly as the Mexican plant begins to improve gradually.

The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in 19Q31.

7 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 19% and a month-on-month increase of 16%.

Deduct non-attributed net profit 2.

2.5 billion, up 35% from the previous period and 49% from the previous quarter.

In addition, the GM strike ended at the end of October, and the impact on the company is expected to gradually decrease.

  Suggest 4 driving forces for well-known companies: 1. Understand their product quality and industry categories.

Company customers include global giants such as Rolls Royce, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, GM, Ford, Toyota, Chrysler, PSA, Tesla and more.

  2. Know its industry pricing power.

We expect the company to reach 50 million sunshade sales in 2019, with a global market share of approximately 35%.

We believe that the pricing power of the company’s hegemony road mainly comes from the company’s continuous technological innovation and excellent cost control: 1) Independent research and development to break through barriers: more than 150 patents such as printed circuit boards and card spring structures; 2)Increase in self-control rate: realize the self-control of key components such as molds and optimize the production line.

  3. Recognize the reproducibility of new categories.

The company is accelerating penetration of headrests, armrests, ceilings and other fields, and the total value of bicycles far exceeds the sun visor.

Among them, the headrest, armrest and visor process and the use of raw materials have a high degree of overlap, which ensures that the company’s headrest and armrest have good quality and cost advantages with pricing power.

  The company’s global outstanding customer channels are expected to help new products accelerate their penetration.

  4. Continuous and rapid growth of research results.

The company’s overseas revenue 南宁桑拿 accounts for about 80% (2018), effectively diversifying the risk of changes in the domestic auto market.

In addition, we believe that the orders on the global platform have good cashability. It is expected that the company’s net profit CAGR will be 20% in the next 3 years, and the CAGR in 5 years is expected to exceed 15%.

  Investment suggestion: The company is a leader in subdivided fields and binds domestic and foreign giants with cost-effective products.

Now combining Motus and perfecting the global layout, it is expected to open a new incremental space quickly through category expansion.

Due to the conservativeness of the company’s category expansion rate, the company’s profit forecast for 2020-2021 was raised, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 7 respectively.
0 billion raised to 8.

1, 9.

600 million, EPS is 2 respectively.

01, 2.

39 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 12 respectively.

5, 10.

5x, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: new order expansion, Motus integration, global automobile production and sales are less than expected, etc.