Wuliangye (000858) quarterly report review 2019: channel sales speed up to promote rapid growth in 19Q1 performance
I. Overview of the event The company released the first quarter report of 2019 on the 28th. The report pointed out that the company’s operating income / net profit attributable to the mother were 175.
9 ppm / 64.
750,000 yuan, +26 a year.
57% / + 30.
26%; basic EPS1.
Second, analyze and judge the income growth rate of the top three, Wuliangye is in the best state since the current recovery of the industry cycle in 19Q1 Wuliangye achieved operating income of 175.
9 trillion, +26 a year.
57%, revenue growth accelerated in the top three liquor.
The rapid growth of revenue comes from the acceleration of the sales of Wuliangye’s major brands during the Spring Festival.
Thanks to the residual supply of Maotai, Wuliangye achieved a good momentum of rising volume and price in 19Q1, channel inventory was effectively removed, and channel spreads have been significantly restored. We believe that the current Wuliangye fundamentals have been in the recovery of the liquor cycleBest state.
The rapid growth of the main brand products pushed up the gross profit margin, and the actual net profit margin of the sales approached 40%. In 19Q1, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 75.
78%, ten years +2.
59ppt, the highest level in a single quarter since the second half of 2014.
Judging from 19Q1 Wuliangye continued the trend since 18 years. The growth rate of high-priced wines, especially Wuliangye’s main brand products, was significantly higher than that of low-priced wines.
We estimate that the annual shipment volume of Wuliangye’s main brand products for the Spring Festival this year will be + 20% or more, which is expected to be significantly higher than low-priced products.
Expenses during the first quarter of 19 9.
78%, ten years +0.
18ppt, generally stable.
Therefore, the rapid increase of gross profit margin has promoted the improvement of net profit margin, reaching 38.
72%, ten years +1.
Because the company had a donation of US $ 100 million in the reporting year included in non-operating expenses, the company’s 19Q1 net profit margin would exceed 40%.
Insist on brand slimming, focus on “1 + 3”, “4 + 4” product system At the end of 2018, the company proposed a brand slimming plan, began cleaning up the total distribution products that are harmful to the Wuliangye brand, and gradually resolved the industry of total distribution products and self-operated large single products.With regard to competition, we will focus our resources on building a “1 + 3” and “4 + 4” core product system.
In April, Wuliangye Group officially released the “Wulianye Group Brand Development and Clearance Management Standards”, “Wuliangye Group Series Wine Brands and Product Development and Clearance Management Standards” and other relevant documents, comprehensively sorted out the existing brand and product structure, and classified the pace.Promote rectification and clearance.
Although in the short term, the 佛山桑拿网 liquidation of some large-scale development products will be a drag on the income side in the short term, but the company’s consolidation and implementation of the brand slimming plan is conducive to effectively avoiding the decline in Wuliangye’s brand value and is very beneficial to the long-term development of the company.
The seventh generation of the Puwu Spring Festival is ideal, and the price of the eighth generation Puwu is expected to be optimistic. In June this year, the eighth generation Wuliangye will be fully listed. It is expected that the ex-factory price of the eighth generation Wuwu will be set at 889 yuan.
Considering that the seven generations of Pu five inventory is ideally de-allocated during the Spring Festival, according to the current distribution ratio (56% seven generations, 9% commemorative edition, 杭州桑拿论坛 35% eight generations), the cost savings of dealers are around 830 yuan, and the current channel price has risen to 840At -850 yuan, we judge that the approval price in the second half of the year is expected to continue to approach 860-880 yuan.
We believe that 1618 and low-grade Wuliangye are expected to become the core driving force for the growth of high-end sales in the second half of the year, and the 8th generation of the plan is only 5250 tons during the year. Therefore, its core task is to continue to maintain prices to repair dealer profit margins.
As the recent approval price continues to improve and channel confidence continues to pick up, we think that the possibility of achieving nominal nominal price for the eight generations of Puwu around the end of 19 may gradually increase.
Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to achieve operating income of 500/590/691 billion in 19-21 years, + 25% / + 18% / + 17%; net profit attributable to mothers of 170/202/238 billion, for the whole year+27% / + 19% / + 18%, corresponding to an EPS of 4.
13 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 23/20/17 times.
At present, the overall evaluation of the liquor industry is 31 times. The company estimates that it is significantly lower than the overall level of other industries and maintains a “recommended” rating.
Fourth, risk warning: economic growth drags down demand, approval prices are lower than expected, food safety issues, etc.